Cell Prices to Rise Despite Lower Than Expected End-User Demand

Polysilicon

• Production Decline: Polysilicon supply has decreased for four consecutive months, with a 2% drop this month, reaching the lowest production levels since early 2024.
• Inventory Situation: Supply-side inventories are down, but buyers are holding increasing inventories.
• Pricing Trends: Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks are between RMB 37.5-43/kg, averaging RMB 40/kg. New order prices are recovering slightly, but demand remains sluggish due to buyers with high inventory levels and low wafer maker utilization rates.
• Market Challenges: Delayed payments and defaults are emerging as companies struggle to meet financial obligations, affecting cash flow and financial stability.

Wafer

• Price Stability: Wafer prices remain mostly flat, with tier-1 makers maintaining prices at RMB 1.15/piece but struggling to deliver. Demand is weak, with no acceptance of higher quotes for 183N wafers.
• Current Trading Prices: P-type M10 and G12 wafers are trading at RMB 1.25 and RMB 1.7-1.75/piece, respectively. N-type wafers have a trading range of RMB 1.06-1.08/piece for 183N and G12.
• Inventory Levels: Rising wafer inventory levels are causing some makers to postpone shipments. Negotiations between buyers and sellers are expected to stabilize around Chinese National Day.

Cell

• Price Overview: Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain at RMB 0.26-0.285/W and RMB 0.28-0.29/W, respectively. N-type M10 cell prices are slipping to RMB 0.26-0.28/W.
• Production Cuts: Many cell manufacturers are gradually reducing p-type capacity, leading to a decrease in overall cell inventory levels.
• Future Outlook: With expected production declines in October, the oversupply situation may improve. Price trends are closely linked to module prices.

Module

• Price Drop: The average module price has fallen to RMB 0.7-0.73/W, affected by weak demand. Prices for different types of modules vary, with ground-mounted projects at RMB 0.68-0.73/W and PERC modules at RMB 0.67-0.78/W.
• Aggressive Price Cuts: Module makers are cutting prices below RMB 0.7/W, anticipating further reductions toward RMB 0.65/W in October, amid stagnant demand.
• Non-China Market Prices: Prices for HJT and PERC modules remain stable in non-China markets, with significant price variations across regions. The U.S. market faces demand challenges due to policy uncertainties.

Conclusion

The overall market for polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules is under pressure due to declining demand, high inventory levels, and increasing financial strain on manufacturers. Price stability and recovery seem uncertain, heavily influenced by external market dynamics and competitive pressures.